Above are some graphs for those of you interested in the remarkable, ongoing drought in intense hurricane landfalls in the US, which is stretching close to 10 years. The top graph shows the days in between intense (category 3+) landfalls in the US since 1900. The bottom graph shows the same information, but only for Florida landfalls.
You can see that for the US, the current “intense hurricane drought” is unprecedented in at least a century. For Florida, there have been other long stretches between intense hurricane landfalls. Over the past century the average time between intense landfalls in Florida has just about doubled, from about 3 years to 6 years.
Data, sources, discussion: Pielke (2014)
The Climate Fix 
Roger,
Pure curiosity: is there anything you can say about how unusual this is in a paleoclimatic context?
Cheers
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Hi Jos … no, and I don’t think anyone really can, though there are some paleotempestology studies at individual locations in the NATL and elsewhere. Thanks.
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There are two sides to any extreme distribution. Media focuses on highest events. Scientists focus on both. This is absolutely no surprise.
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This is absolutely no surprise.
We’re told, constantly, about how there are increases in extreme weather, generally directly linked to CO2. Yet when it is pointed out that the facts show that extreme weather isn’t increasing it’s “no surprise”.
Personally, I think the record lack of major hurricanes in the US (and not exactly a surplus elsewhere) is a major surprise. It’s not like anyone predicted it — indeed quite the opposite.
I think statements that it is “no surprise” look suspiciously like “we’ve blown our predictions, but if we pretend we haven’t maybe no-one will notice”.
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Two sides to extremes. Best to focus on both.
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You’re too cryptic by half — what the h*ll does that mean? (This is the internet, you need to say what you mean, not wink knowingly and hope we will understand your extreme wit and wisdom.)
Is it that the current extreme lack of hurricanes is proof of global warming?
Actually, I think it may be. Storms are caused by temperature differential, so that warming in the extra-tropics is likely to reduce temperature differentials, and hence reduce storm power.
But the alarmists have shot themselves in the foot with this one, because they insist that warming will produce more powerful storms. To accept that warming will have massively beneficial affects like reducing hurricanes will be a bitter pill for them to swallow.
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“To accept that warming will have massively beneficial affects like reducing hurricanes will be a bitter pill for them to swallow.”
Mooloo – You almost “get it” now. Congrats!
I am not one of “them.” I have no climate change agenda. Best said by this guy.
“You can observe a lot by just watching.” – Y. Berra
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Reblogged this on I Didn't Ask To Be a Blog.
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